Analytics · Data Engineering

Portugal Data
Intelligence

A macroeconomic analytics platform tracking the Portuguese economy from 2010 to 2025, covering everything from live data ingestion to boardroom-ready dashboards and REST APIs.

Power BI Python FastAPI Streamlit SARIMAX SQLite Docker
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15 years of data (2010–2025) 12 economic pillars Solo project
12
Economic pillars
39
DAX measures
5
Data sources
15 yrs
Time series (2010–2025)
Overview

One platform,
the full economic picture

Portuguese macroeconomic data is scattered across multiple statistical authorities (INE, Banco de Portugal, PORDATA, and Eurostat), with no integrated platform to consolidate it or benchmark performance against EU peers.

Portugal Data Intelligence closes that gap: a complete end-to-end system that ingests live data, applies time-series forecasting (SARIMAX + STL), and turns it into AI-powered narrative insights, a risk matrix, and strategic recommendations, delivered as an interactive Power BI dashboard, a Streamlit web app, a FastAPI REST API, and a boardroom-ready HTML briefing.

Twelve economic pillars are tracked simultaneously across 15 years (from the sovereign debt crisis through COVID-19 to the post-pandemic rebound), including regional NUTS2 analysis across Portugal's seven regions and EU-27 benchmarking via radar charts.

Crisis peaks → 2025 recovery
Unemployment Rate ↓ 11.2 pp
2013
17.2%
2025
6.0%
Public Debt (% of GDP) ↓ 47.8 pp
2021
137.5%
2025
89.7%
Sovereign Bond Yield (10Y) ↓ 3.2 pp
2013
6.3%
2025
3.1%
Annual GDP Growth ↑ 2.9 pp
2013
−1.0%
2025
+1.9%
INE · Banco de Portugal · Eurostat · 2010–2025
Architecture

Three-stage pipeline

From raw CSVs and API calls to Power BI pages and REST endpoints, every layer built and owned.

01
ETL Pipeline
Extracts data via CSV/API from five national sources (INE, Banco de Portugal, PORDATA, Eurostat, ECB), runs an 8-check data-quality framework (schema, nulls, ranges, outliers, drift, completeness, consistency, freshness), transforms via SQL, and loads into SQLite with UUID-based lineage tracking and SHA-256 checksums.
Python SQLite pandas NumPy
02
Analytics Layer
STL decomposition for trend/seasonality isolation. SARIMAX and ensemble forecasting with AIC-based selection and expanding-window backtesting. VAR and Granger causality for structural relationships. GDP nowcasting via bridge equations. Anomaly detection (z-score + Isolation Forest) feeding a threshold alert engine across 11 indicators. Cross-pillar correlation matrix with EU-27 benchmarking.
statsmodels scikit-learn Plotly seaborn
03
Output Layer
Power BI dashboard with 39 DAX measures across 7 categories. Four-page Streamlit web app. FastAPI REST API with 7 endpoints. A boardroom-ready HTML briefing (including a risk matrix and strategic recommendations), plus multi-sheet Excel exports. Containerised with Docker, covered by a 489-test suite, and deployed via CI/CD.
Power BI FastAPI Streamlit Docker
Coverage

Twelve economic pillars

Each pillar tracked at monthly, quarterly, or annual granularity from 2010 to 2025.

GDP
Quarterly · 2010 Q1 – 2025 Q4
Full growth cycle modelled and forecast, from the debt-crisis contraction (−1.5% avg) and COVID shock (−1.3% avg) to a rebound at 1.9% in 2025 against a 1.2% long-run trend.
Unemployment
Monthly · Jan 2010 – Dec 2025
From an 18.3% crisis peak to 5.6% historic lows. Strong correlation with bond yields (r = 0.71) quantified.
Credit to Economy
Monthly · Jan 2010 – Dec 2025
Private credit dynamics vs NPL ratios (down to 2.1% by late 2025), whose inverse relationship with inflation (r = −0.48) is measured and visualised.
Interest Rates
Monthly · Jan 2010 – Dec 2025
ECB rate trajectory and Portuguese sovereign spreads through zero-rate era and the post-2022 normalisation cycle.
Inflation (HICP / CPI)
Monthly · Jan 2010 – Dec 2025
Deflationary period, post-COVID surge, and recent moderation decomposed with STL. Phillips curve visualised.
Public Debt
Quarterly · 2010 Q1 – 2025 Q4
Tracked from its 137.5% GDP peak through consolidation to below 90%. SARIMAX forecasts with baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios.
Housing Market
Annual · 2010–2025
House price indices, rental yields, and construction activity tracked across the post-crisis recovery and the 2017–2025 housing surge.
Labour Market Detail
Annual · 2010–2025
Employment by sector, youth unemployment, long-term unemployment, and wage growth decomposed across the full economic cycle.
External Accounts
Quarterly · 2010 Q1 – 2025 Q4
Current account balance, trade flows, and tourism revenues. Portugal's shift from current account deficit to sustained surplus modelled over 15 years.
Fiscal Structure
Annual · 2010–2025
Government revenue vs. expenditure, primary balance, and structural deficit aligned with EU fiscal rules. Consolidation trajectory visualised from austerity to recovery.
Inequality & Income
Annual · 2010–2025
Gini coefficient, income distribution, and poverty rates at national level, tracking how the recovery was (and wasn't) shared across households.
Regional (NUTS2)
Annual · 7 NUTS2 regions · 2010–2025
GDP per capita, unemployment, and income broken down across Portugal's 7 NUTS2 regions, with EU-27 benchmarking via radar charts.
Results

Key findings

Statistical patterns extracted across 15 years of Portuguese macroeconomic data.

18.3% → 5.6%
Unemployment peak-to-trough
Unemployment fell from the 2013 sovereign debt crisis monthly peak of 18.3% to a December 2025 historic low of 5.6%, a 12.7 pp recovery tracked and modelled month by month.
137.5% GDP
Public debt at its peak
Public debt peaked at 137.5% of GDP during the COVID-19 shock before consolidation brought it down to 89.7% by 2025. SARIMAX scenarios model its forward path.
r = 0.71
Unemployment–bond yield correlation
A strong cross-pillar correlation between unemployment and sovereign bond yields, quantified in the full correlation matrix and visualised in the heatmap.
r = −0.48
Inflation–NPL inverse relationship
Inflation and non-performing-loan ratios moved inversely across the cycle, a persistent dynamic quantified in the cross-pillar correlation matrix.
Data

Key economic stories

15 years of Portuguese macroeconomic data, from the sovereign debt crisis through COVID-19 to the 2025 recovery.

Unemployment Rate
Annual average · % · 2010–2025
Source: INE / Eurostat ↓ 11.2 pp since 2013 (annual avg)
GDP Annual Growth Rate
Real growth · % · 2010–2025
Source: INE / World Bank +7.0% peak rebound in 2022
Inflation Rate (HICP)
Annual average · % · 2010–2025
Source: INE / Eurostat HICP 8.1% avg in 2022 · 10.6% peak
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Annual · % GDP · 2010–2025
Source: Banco de Portugal / Eurostat 137.5% peak → 89.7% in 2025
Technology

Full tech stack

End-to-end data engineering, every layer built from scratch.

Language & Database
Python 3.10+
SQLite 3
pandas
NumPy
Analytics & Modelling
statsmodels (STL, SARIMAX)
scikit-learn / SciPy
matplotlib / seaborn
Plotly
BI & Dashboards
Power BI (39 DAX)
Streamlit
HTML reports · Excel export
OpenAI GPT-4 (optional)
API & Infrastructure
FastAPI (7 endpoints)
Docker
CI/CD · pytest (489 tests)
MkDocs
Open source

See the full project

Explore the interactive report, or dive into the source, from ETL scripts and DAX measures to full documentation on GitHub.

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